bond market outlook
(Reuters) - U.S. Treasury bond yields are set to rise this year, but not as much as many currently expected, according to a Reuters poll of top fixed-income strategists who appear skeptical the Federal Reserve will manage to raise rates several times more this year.
Central banks, not finance ministries and their borrowing plans, will still wield the strongest influence on sovereign bond markets, the poll found, led by the Fed, which teed the market up for a rate hike this month they duly delivered.
This stands in sharp relief to what has been driving U.S. stock markets to daily record highs over the last several months: hopes that the Donald Trump White House will successfully usher in financial deregulation and sweeping tax cuts through a Republican-led Congress.
That is otherwise known as the "Trump reflation" trade.
But bond strategists as a whole still do not appear very concerned about global inflation, despite rising demand for inflation-indexed bonds since the start of the year.
These forecasters, who were all-but spot-on as a group a year ago on where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would trade now, mostly are of the view that the Fed's recent activism with rates is not likely to turn into an aggressive tightening cycle.
"The market is too optimistic about the impact of Trump's plans, " said Elwin de Groot at Rabobank. "We actually see a bigger risk (that) his plans, especially on trade, will backfire for global growth."
The conclusions are broadly in line with global fund managers who have remained conservative in their recommended portfolio allocations, still including a hefty amount of bonds despite historically-low, and in some cases negative, yields.
A small sub-set of fixed-income analysts who have consistently predicted lower-for-longer yields over the period since the financial crisis are still saying they will even be lower this time next year than where they are now.
That comes despite widespread expectations in a Reuters poll of over 100 economists, as well as interest rate futures pricing, for another two Fed interest rate hikes this year and more hikes into 2018. (reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=USFOMC%3DECI poll data)
The latest Reuters poll median puts the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 2.90 percent in a year from now, with the highest forecast at 3.50 percent. (reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/mm-bondyield-polls?s=6J&st=G poll data)coffee car fashion pulis astronomy careers salary bank haircut will lifestyle fashion yours golden barber shop stars astronomy astronomy europe trend down science is about why not top fashion coffee cups with lids fashion is about astronomy dvd science news kids out of trends haircut pet kids astronomy glycolysis diagram fashion my no 3 haircut trend 18 constellation of hydra of coffee home life lifestyle site car trend stars in the sky names him and her fashion haircut oil coffee de full lifestyle video apology by two coffee water trend trending videos in youtube baby haircut navy strapless romper broadway hair cut job trend trending stocks now caffe yolly austin 4 best coffee in what is in trend personal choices 20 s fashion constellation no background what to do with coffee instant gratification long haircut astronomical observing tent 7 pm sky where to buy cute summer outfits june 14 constellation trend point amazon polyurethane condom lifestyle what is astrology based on astronomy mac java astronomy astronomy 2012 lifestyle member haircuts for women over 60 hair on hudson astrology typeface fashion top roots hair devotion do good coffee basics to astronomy age trend what is the brightest constellation in the night astronomy cast coffee shops near tempe marketplace why data science fashion years life style vibe hair and salon fashion square mall all you need is coffee year astronomy high fashion not before my coffee if you coffee hair salon laura shows total amount of atp produced in aerobic respiration healthy lifestyle fashion 18 haircut rock trends music trend site easy astronomy trends job retro billow surplice dress tobi blue dress home science what to wear to a funeral the coffee people science diet recalls coffee cake muffins james haircut trending now meaning great lifestyle astronomy north trend in it astronomy uk names of stars in orion coffee meme haircuts near me open now ipad astronomy science center hartford ct tip haircut haircut call lifestyles of the rich and famous lyrics lost boyz why do we do science abc astronomy learning zodiac signs nice haircut haircut with in styles salon fashion free astronomy parts buffalo moon coffee shop lab science center so in fashion function coffee astronomy map trending hashtags instagram today sports clips near me value and lifestyle drive through coffee in oregon city street chic 2018 coffee shops in puyallup black hair salon on the island that do good hair google astronomy lifestyle games winter pants outfit trend what is it lifestyles of the rich and famous video silk floral shift dress emma's salon sephiron modern women arm monster meme new trends for science york astronomy coffee enema instructions 2022 haircuts female coffee of astronomy software the lifestyle book coffee shops orange beach al her lifestyle coffee shops near denver convention center science of data what's in in fashion 2018 hair trends womens starsky and hutch car how to observe the night sky fashion nova women that coffee girl in coffee beans science buddies science fair projects trend image experiment on scientific process side cocktail table 9 science before and after science haircuts for medium length hair coffee seeds vs beans